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Research
Emulator-based Bayesian optimization for efficient multi-objective calibration of an individual-based model of malariaIndividual-based models have become important tools in the global battle against infectious diseases, yet model complexity can make calibration to biological and epidemiological data challenging. We propose using a Bayesian optimization framework employing Gaussian process or machine learning emulator functions to calibrate a complex malaria transmission simulator.
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Identifying individual, household and environmental risk factors for malaria infection on Bioko Island to inform interventionsSince 2004, malaria transmission on Bioko Island has declined significantly as a result of the scaling-up of control interventions. The aim of eliminating malaria from the Island remains elusive, however, underscoring the need to adapt control to the local context. Understanding the factors driving the risk of malaria infection is critical to inform optimal suits of interventions in this adaptive approach.
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Reconstructing the early global dynamics of under-ascertained COVID-19 cases and infectionsAsymptomatic or subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infections are often unreported, which means that confirmed case counts may not accurately reflect underlying epidemic dynamics. Understanding the level of ascertainment (the ratio of confirmed symptomatic cases to the true number of symptomatic individuals) and undetected epidemic progression is crucial to informing COVID-19 response planning, including the introduction and relaxation of control measures.
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Geospatial modelling for malaria risk stratification and intervention targeting for low-endemic countriesEwan Punam Susan Tasmin Cameron Amratia Rumisha Symons BSc PhD PhD PhD (Biostatistics) Director of Malaria Risk Stratification Honorary Research
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A Maximum Entropy Model of the Distribution of Dengue Serotype in MexicoPathogen strain diversity is an important driver of the trajectory of epidemics. The role of bioclimatic factors on the spatial distribution of dengue virus serotypes has, however, not been previously studied. Hence, we developed municipality-scale environmental suitability maps for the four dengue virus serotypes using maximum entropy modeling.
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Patterns and trends of in-hospital mortality due to non-communicable diseases and injuries in Tanzania, 2006–2015Globally, non-communicable diseases (NCD) kill about 40 million people annually, with about three-quarters of the deaths occurring in low- and middle-income countries. This study was carried out to determine the patterns, trends, and causes of in-hospital non-communicable disease (NCD) and injury deaths in Tanzania from 2006-2015.
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Risk factors associated with post-tuberculosis sequelae: a systematic review and meta-analysisPost-tuberculosis (TB) sequelae present a significant challenge in the management of TB survivors, often leading to persistent health issues even after successful treatment. Identifying risk factors associated with post-TB sequelae is important for improving outcomes and quality of life of TB survivors. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to identify risk factors associated with long-term physical sequelae among TB survivors.
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Individual variation in vaccine immune response can produce bimodal distributions of protectionThe ability for vaccines to protect against infectious diseases varies among individuals, but computational models employed to inform policy typically do not account for this variation. Here we examine this issue: we implement a model of vaccine efficacy developed in the context of SARS-CoV-2 in order to evaluate the general implications of modelling correlates of protection on the individual level.
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Cholera risk in Lusaka: A geospatial analysis to inform improved water and sanitation provisionUrbanization combined with climate change are exacerbating water scarcity for an increasing number of the world’s emerging cities. Water and sanitation infrastructure, which in the first place was largely built to cater only to a small subsector of developing city populations, is increasingly coming under excessive strain.
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Association between mental health workforce supply and clusters of high and low rates of youth suicide: An Australian study using suicide mortality data from 2016 to 2020Abstract: To examine the association between mental health workforce supply and spatial clusters of high versus low incidence of youth suicide.